Czech Politics Before the 2025 Vote: Scenarios and Implications for Ukraine
IDR Analytical Brief. October, 2025
System & timetable. Parliamentary republic; majority threshold 101/200; voting 3–4 October 2025.
Party field (short):
- Spolu (ODS–KDU-ČSL–TOP 09): centre-right, pro-EU/NATO.
- ANO (Babiš): centrist/populist focus on domestic issues; selective EU scepticism.
- SPD: right-wing, hard EU scepticism.
- STAN / Pirates: liberal, pro-EU.
- Smaller/new entrants: Stačilo!, Motoristé sobě, Přísaha (varying degrees of scepticism).
Structural stabilisers
- Defence-industrial momentum (ammunition, UAVs, MRO) with significant Ukraine exposure.
- Public trust in national government remains low, fuelling volatility—but not necessarily a foreign-policy U-turn.
Scenarios
|
Scenario |
Coalition Logic |
Policy Toward Ukraine |
Risks / Opportunities |
|
A. Status-quo+ (Spolu stays in power) |
Pro-EU partners form government |
Continued military-technical & political support; tight EU/NATO coordination |
Stability and predictability; slower reforms possible |
|
B. ANO + moderate partners (no SPD) |
ANO wins; seeks centrist deal |
Softer rhetoric, defence contracts preserved due to industry interests |
Needs active Kyiv–Prague engagement with business & MFA |
|
C. ANO + SPD (and/or small sceptics) |
Minimal winning coalition on the right |
Tougher EU rhetoric; attempts to trim political support, but defence ties persist |
Risk of a “Budapest effect” in V4; require economic anchors & Track-2 ties |
Recommendations for Ukraine (next 3–6 months)
- Anchor defence cooperation: framework MoUs on ammunition, UAVs, repair/co-production; joint R&D and partial localisation.
- Engage across the aisle: structured outreach to all parliamentary factions, including ANO, with “wins for Czechia” (jobs, innovation, border security).
- Public narrative: highlight benefits for Czech industry and European security (taxes, exports, employment).
- Use V4 pragmatically: position Prague as bridge on air defence, cyber, energy security.
- Track-2/1.5: regular business dialogues, regional/university links to depoliticise cooperation.