Interview: Igor Kaminik. ISRAEL IN THE FIRE

Igor Kaminik, Israeli expert and Chairman of the Board of the NGO “Dor Moria".

Vitalii Barvynenko:
Hello, dear friends! This is Vitalii Barvynenko. Today I have with me Igor Kaminik, an Israeli expert, native of Odesa, and Chairman of the board of the well-known Israeli NGO “Dor Moria.”

Igor, thank you for joining our broadcast. It’s always a pleasure to speak with a smart person—those are in short supply in the analytics market. Smart people are now a rare commodity, so really, it’s just the two of us left.

Iran–Israel Conflict and Netanyahu’s “Historic Victory”

Vitalii Barvynenko:
Igor, after the twelve-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025—when Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran retaliated with missile attacks that, sadly, caused casualties—how do you interpret Netanyahu’s statement about a “historic victory,” alongside Israel’s dissatisfaction with the results and calls to change the regime in Tehran? How do you assess these outcomes and Netanyahu’s rhetoric?

Igor Kaminik:
I don’t want to venture into psychology or cognitive dissonance, which we see often in global politics. But this is interesting, because we are essentially talking about a religious war. For most Israelis, these wars carry spiritual significance. So on one hand, the enemy is defeated; on the other, evil can never be fully overcome until the Messiah arrives. It makes sense: we’ve won, but until the Messiah, we can’t fully conquer evil—there will be more episodes. It’s a convenient stance.

Triggering the Hot Phase of the Iran Conflict

Vitalii Barvynenko:
What were the deeper causes of this hot phase of the Iran–Israel conflict? After all, for nearly 40 years, Netanyahu has annually warned that Iran “would soon” obtain nuclear weapons.

Igor Kaminik:
These are long-term processes. The issue of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons is always a concern for Israel. As for the immediate trigger of the recent conflict: Iran has become a key player in shaping the “new world order.” If Iran stands firm within the Global South—and that bloc is gaining demographic and economic strength—Iran, with its peace agreements with Saudi Arabia backed by China, becomes central to a South vs. West confrontation.

Additionally, there’s interest in creating an “Abrahamic NATO,” which would serve as a barrier to north–south and east–west corridors—a sort of “Islamic caliphate run by Jews and under a Protestant nuclear umbrella.” No one wants full-scale war, but since it’s a religious war, the stakes constantly escalate. Iran might even collapse if warfare continues “to the bitter end.”

Definition of “War to the End”

Vitalii Barvynenko:
What do you mean by “war to the end”?

Igor Kaminik:
It means eliminating at least the top leadership and dismantling the core structures. But that’s problematic: Iran has many major stakeholders (China, Pakistan, Russia, Europe) who are not interested in its collapse. Plus, Iran is becoming useful in resisting the new axis of opposition. It's getting complex. For example, Iran's recent killing of a Shia imam and statements by its Education Minister about genocide signal the beginning of a dangerous spiral. If Khamenei is killed, a more radical force may rise. The IRGC operates like a religious order with strong economic and military power. Western media amplify Iran’s internal issues, but its collapse wouldn’t benefit everyone.

Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza and Long-Term Stability

Vitalii Barvynenko:
Turning to Gaza: the humanitarian crisis continues. The UN and Gaza’s Ministry of Health report around 57,000 Palestinian deaths as of July 2025. How do you assess Israel’s strategy of creating “humanitarian cities” in Rafah and their potential impact on long-term stability? What solution do you envision for the humanitarian crisis?

Igor Kaminik:
There have been many disinformation campaigns about Gaza—ranging from “Trump’s Paradise” to $2 billion plans for “closed camps” funded by GT and threatened by EU sanctions. Under pressure, Israel has agreed to expand humanitarian aid. From Israel’s perspective, this is mostly political maneuvering. Right-wing ministers believe that whenever Israel withdraws, Hamas returns. From a military standpoint, withdrawing now would necessitate reconquest later.

From a humanitarian angle, the core problem is that Hamas is rooted in the Muslim Brotherhood, a religious organization adept at social mobilization through schools, clubs, hospitals, Islamic banking. If you remove Hamas’s leadership, who will replace them in this system? No one offers an alternative. Other countries have banned the Brotherhood, but it acts legally in Israel. It could morph into another group without an alternative framework. Netanyahu and Trump have recently said they don’t want Hamas or the Palestinian Authority in charge, but they still mention Fatah—a leftist-socialist party. So what will emerge from a mix of Islam and militant socialism? No one knows yet. I believe you need an alternative social safety network—but that conversation isn’t happening yet.

Underestimated Social Structure of Gaza and Islamic Banking

Vitalii Barvynenko:
To what extent is Gaza’s social infrastructure underestimated, and is there a more flexible solution than “paradise or hell”?

Igor Kaminik:
That’s a big question. The Global South has a strong tool in Islamic banking, which counters U.S.-style finance. This could enable anti-capitalist, quasi-socialist cooperative frameworks. Whether Trump or right-wing internationalists would support it is unclear. The UN has long called for systems that enable Gazans to sustain themselves and develop internal economies—but that doesn’t exist today.

Vitalii Barvynenko:
Can you elaborate on Islamic banking?

Igor Kaminik:
Despite not being an Islamist, I study local communities and sovereignty. Islamic banking accounts for over 70% of financial systems in some Muslim countries—100% in Iran. Its resilience to sanctions helped Iran build infrastructure projects outside conventional finance.

If we build an “Abrahamic regional cluster,” Islamic banking will dominate. It can be supplemented with halakhic banking (Jewish religious norms). In Orthodoxy, usury was also shunned. In economic crises, communities need cooperative instruments. In Europe, Islamic communities are using consolidated Islamic banking to compete with atomized Europeans.

Vitalii Barvynenko:
So, “Islamo-halakhic banking” might be the future?

Igor Kaminik:
It’s one possible tool. We call it “Abrahamic banking”—a framework merging religious financial principles. Our research shows about one-third of Israeli Jews view the Arab-Israeli conflict as a religious war—and over 60% see themselves as a chosen people. Expecting secular victors in Israel is unrealistic. We might see an Israeli version of Iran’s IRGC rather than a liberal secular state. Islam and Judaism are closer to each other than Judaism to Christianity. Islamic banking is a viable alternative to enhance sovereignty and address local issues.

Abraham Accords 2.0 and Regional Power Balance

Vitalii Barvynenko:
The Abraham Accords 2.0—originally a Trump idea—are being expanded, possibly including Azerbaijan. How do you assess this initiative’s evolution, especially after the Iran–Israel war?

Igor Kaminik:
Trump once said he intended to include Iran in the Abraham Accords but didn’t succeed. The Middle East is a strategic nexus linking north–south and east–west. India, which has strong ties with Israel, is also involved in this dynamic.

The region is volatile, with artificial, colonial-era borders cracking. The “Abrahamic cluster” could transcend those boundaries. Success hinges on the stability of the current financial system. Various “Abrahamic coalitions” are working on this. It’s timely and implementable with careful strategy.

Israel’s Existential Conflict and Military Doctrine

Vitalii Barvynenko:
Israel describes this conflict as existential, especially after decimating Hezbollah and Hamas infrastructure. However, it faces genocide allegations and questions about legitimacy. How does this affect Israel’s long-term stability and military doctrine?

Igor Kaminik:
Israel is a mosaic of competing solidarities. Many groups vie for resources and political power. I see two possible futures: 1) Israel as the liberal defender of Western values, a Western bulwark against “savages” in the Middle East; 2) a Jerusalemite Jewish Kingdom led by Ben-Gvir. Both depend heavily on U.S. support. Without it, Israel cannot survive. And it can’t survive if opposing powers like China or Pakistan back rivals—especially since Israelis view this as a religious battle.

UNRWA and Gaza’s Social Infrastructure

Vitalii Barvynenko:
How corrupt is UNRWA, and how does it understand Gaza’s internal social structure?

Igor Kaminik:
UNRWA operates in a system dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood. It had no choice but to work with them, embedding Brotherhood-affiliated people in field operations. They became hostages of Gaza’s social infrastructure. Any UN body that resolves the crisis would lose funding. Therefore, they perpetuate it. They are corrupt—everyone is—but they’re also bound to the Brotherhood’s network. Hamas’s leadership has used solidarity as loyalty: no support, no place in society.

There are anti-Hamas groups in Gaza, but their fate is uncertain. We proposed that humanitarian goals should be human-development focused—e.g., raising Gaza’s Human Development Index to 0.7 within five years. That would shift UNRWA and other players toward development, not politics.

Trump’s Resettlement Idea

Vitalii Barvynenko:
Trump suggested resettling Gazans outside the territory.

Igor Kaminik:
He’s old and doesn’t care. He’s backed by a certain ideology—similar to other aging leaders. This mindset could lead to radical proposals since no one expects these places to thrive long-term.

Relations with Syria and Regional Power Balance

Vitalii Barvynenko:
There are reports of talks between Assad and Israeli officials, possibly linked to Golan Heights normalization in exchange for reconstruction aid. What consequences could such agreements have for Syrian stability and regional power balance as of June 2025?

Igor Kaminik:
There are various reports—Israel communicates with Turkey and Russia too. But Syrian officials deny handing over the Golan or Druze regions. Syria remains volatile, and another civil war flare-up is possible. The new Syrian leadership may even join the Abraham Accords.

Another factor: the potential sale of F‑35s to Turkey—this worries Israel. Turkey would emerge as a major regional power with a large air force. Turkey remains the main backer of the Muslim Brotherhood and a sponsor of a Sunni resistance axis against Israel. Erdogan’s ambitions in Jerusalem persist, yet trade (e.g., Azerbaijani oil to Israel via Turkey) continues—the new “Ottomanism.”

Israel’s Strategy Regarding New Syrian Leadership

Vitalii Barvynenko:
What is Israel’s strategy toward the new Assad-led regime? Is the situation fluid?

Igor Kaminik:
Everything is fluid—countries react to situational developments. Israel’s main goal is to push threats away from its borders, deploying security forces to prevent incursions. What they did in Iran—destroy military infrastructure and leadership—applies here too. It’s a clear and uncompromising policy: respect neighbors’ sovereign territories while preventing threats. It’s a pragmatic strategy suited to the current global context.

Trump–Netanyahu Meeting: US–Israel Relations

Vitalii Barvynenko:
Igor, regarding Trump’s visit with Netanyahu in Washington—Netanyahu again nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. How do you assess the visit, Trump’s pressure on Gaza solutions, and the broader US–Israel dynamics?

Igor Kaminik:
This is a key domestic move for Netanyahu. Re-election chances are slim, but he’s viewed by many Israelis as having “defeated” Iran, involved the U.S., and enhanced national prestige. Meeting Trump reinforces his eschatological bond with the U.S. I liked Netanyahu’s symbolic gift—a mezuzah shaped like a B‑2 bomber made from unexploded Iranian missile material—it’s like Easter eggs styled as lemons: war aesthetics.

Israel is preparing for potential war. They’re discussing Gaza under EU pressure—countries like Spain are even calling for diplomatic rupture. Netanyahu went to deal with Trump (“Papi,” as NATO insiders call him) partly to negotiate over Europe too. Trump values loyalty—he recently imposed heavy tariffs on Brazil for actions against Bolsonaro. So Netanyahu is aligning with a loyal friend. This meeting elevates ties to a theological and strategic level.

Duration of the Hot Phase in Iran–Israel War

Vitalii Barvynenko:
In closing: how long, in your expert opinion, will the hot phase of the Iran–Israel war last?

Igor Kaminik:
I believe the hot phase will morph into hybrid warfare—with explosions, sudden deaths—while both sides rebuild. The next open confrontation depends on developments in Gaza. China has already signaled it won’t allow Russia’s defeat—and likely won’t allow Iran’s. North Korea also won’t allow it. It’s a highly dynamic environment. A new geopolitical order is emerging, centered on the Middle East: either an Abrahamic NATO (Jews, Muslims, Protestants) or a religious-Abrahamic bloc independent from interest-based capital—no longer fully American-aligned. Israel can choose either path. Which one succeeds remains to be seen.

Dor Moria’s Projects and Research

Vitalii Barvynenko:
Igor, final question: what research and projects is “Dor Moria” currently working on?

Igor Kaminik:
On July 21, we held an official lobbying session to refine and discuss a new bill to legalize municipal neighborhood councils in Israeli cities—we plan to submit it to a Knesset committee.

Additionally, we are urging Israeli leaders to carefully study the social system of the Muslim Brotherhood and devise an alternative—because without one, plans for clearing Gaza will be futile. Neither Europeans, Americans, nor Israel currently have a substitute—leaving only extremist solutions. The Brotherhood is a network that can grow into many variants.

I find it ironic that the Brotherhood is banned in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE yet remains active in Knesset. This may reflect internal political motives. Furthermore, there’s a split between Ra’am and Hadash in the Joint List, and Ayman Odeh is being marginalized. This could mean Ra’am's Islamist voices gain influence in Knesset.

Vitalii Barvynenko:
We’ll be watching closely. Middle Eastern politics is subtler than a mosquito’s wing—complex, convoluted, and endlessly fascinating. Dear friends, this is Vitalii Barvynenko of the Danube Research Institute. We recorded “A View on Middle East Events” with Igor Kaminik—the Israeli expert behind Dor Moria, an influential research organization active in Knesset lobbying. Igor, thank you for your time and insights.

Igor Kaminik:
Thank you, Vitalii.