NIBULON Analytical Brief on the Danube (2022–2025).

Institute of Danube Research (September 2025)

Abstract

This briefing systematizes data on NIBULON’s reorientation of logistics to the Danube during 2022–2025, the dynamics of cargo turnover at Ukraine’s Danube ports (Izmail, Reni, Ust-Dunaisk), and comparisons with the pre-war “Black Sea” model. Key findings:

1. The launch and scaling-up of NIBULON’s “Bessarabska branch” in Izmail ensured critical export resilience.
2. The peak role of the Danube route was observed in 2023, after which in 2024 its share decreased due to the reopening of the Black Sea corridor in the north-western sector.
3. NIBULON’s investments and the increasing design capacities of ports laid the groundwork for the long-term competitiveness of the Danube corridor.

Background and Sources

Following the blockade of major Black Sea ports (Odesa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi), NIBULON established a Bessarabska branch in Izmail and shifted a significant share of exports to the Danube. This briefing is based on: official company releases and sectoral media, data from the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (USPA), and reports by Reuters, Interfax, and other trade consultancies.

NIBULON’s Logistics Model on the Danube

• Infrastructure base. In 2022–2023 the company launched the Bessarabska branch in Izmail. By end-2023, over 2 million tons had been transshipped to 25 countries. By February 2025, cumulative volumes exceeded 3.8 million tons (grains and oilseeds).
• Capacity. The dedicated transshipment terminal in Izmail has a design productivity of up to 10,000 tons/day; deep logistics are supported by NIBULON’s own fleet.
• Direct sea line. In November 2024, NIBULON dispatched its first coaster (7,000 t of soybeans) from Izmail to Turkey, declaring the start of regular voyages. This institutionalized a stable “Danube → sea” export leg.

Comparative Export Position

• Pre-war baseline. In marketing year 2021/22, NIBULON exported approx. 4.6 million tons. In 2022/23 volumes dropped to ~2.34 million tons (nearly halved), reflecting the shock and costlier river logistics.
• Recovery. By 2024, exports rebounded to approx. 3.0 million tons, with the company aiming at 3.4 million tons for the season—largely driven by Danube capacities.

Dynamics of Danube Ports and Black Sea Context

• Danube cluster volumes:
• 2022: ~16.5 Mt
• 2023: 29–32 Mt (historic peak)
• 2024: 17.3 Mt (–45.9% y/y), reflecting traffic shift to the reopened Black Sea corridor and infrastructure attacks.
• Design capacities: Izmail ~8.5 Mt/y, Reni ~8 Mt/y, Ust-Dunaisk ~4 Mt/y (with bottlenecks concentrated in Izmail).
• Black Sea ports: total throughput reached 97.2 Mt in 2024 (+57% y/y), partly displacing Danube flows.

Summary Table (Key Indicators)

Analytical Conclusions

1. Danube as strategic alternative. NIBULON’s Izmail branch proves the Danube’s potential as a primary export corridor under restricted access to Black Sea ports.
2. Regional multiplier effect. Increased turnover revitalized Ukraine’s Danube region, creating jobs, boosting local budgets, and enhancing investment appeal.
3. Vulnerabilities. Danube logistics remain exposed to military risks, infrastructure limits, and competition from the Black Sea corridor—necessitating security and modernization measures.
4. International support. Coordinated investment (fleet renewal, dredging, electrification, digital logistics) is crucial for long-term resilience.
5. Logistics transformation. The Danube is shifting from a “reserve route” to a systemic pillar of Ukraine’s food security and regional integration.

Policy/Management Recommendations

• Infrastructure investment: modernization of rail/road approaches, energy grids, and grain transshipment in Izmail/Reni; support for PPP/SPV models.
• Logistical resilience: insurance/freight guarantees with donor support; standby coaster-shuttle schemes.
• Data transparency: harmonization of statistics (calendar vs. seasonal), quarterly verification via USPA and Ukrzaliznytsia.

IDR Press Statement

“The Danube has proven to be Ukraine’s strategic export artery. NIBULON’s reorientation to Izmail turned the Danube ports (Izmail, Reni, Kiliia) from peripheral hubs into a true lifeline for agricultural exports. Investments in port infrastructure and fleet have sustained grain flows even under blockade, giving a powerful boost to the Danube region’s economy. At the same time, international support is essential: modernization of Danube ports, protection of infrastructure, and the development of resilient multimodal routes. NIBULON’s experience shows that the Danube is no longer a backup option, but a systemic element of Ukraine’s and Europe’s food security. This long-term transformation is reshaping the country’s logistics map.” — Institute of Danube Research