Energy security risks for Moldova remain

Ukraine’s transmission system operator Ukrenergo has reported that the revision of import capacity parameters for the Moldova–Ukraine block is the result of coordinated cooperation between transmission system operators within the Eastern Europe Capacity Calculation Region (EE CCR), ENTSO-E, and the Regional Coordination Centre TSCnet.

Previously, the maximum agreed import capacity for the Moldova–Ukraine block amounted to 2,150 MW, with 25% allocated to Moldova and 75% to Ukraine. For a long period, Ukraine did not fully utilise its share, which reduced risks of electricity shortages in Moldova, especially during colder periods.

However, massive Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure at the end of last year caused prolonged blackouts across the country, including in Kyiv, significantly increasing Ukraine’s demand for electricity imports. At the same time, Moldova failed to commission the 400 kV Isaccea–Vulcănești power line, initially promised for December 2025 and expected to serve as a key safeguard against large-scale outages. As a result, risks of electricity shortages in Moldova persist.

IDR comment:

The current situation highlights structural vulnerabilities in regional energy security, where delayed infrastructure projects combined with heightened competition for cross-border capacity limit the effectiveness of short-term balancing mechanisms.