European Gas Reserves Decline Rapidly Amid Prolonged Cold Spell

Persistent cold weather and heavy snowfall across Europe have led to an accelerated withdrawal of natural gas from underground storage facilities. Since the beginning of the heating season, more than 30 bcm of gas has already been extracted from European storage sites, significantly increasing pressure on reserves.

By mid-winter, storage levels in the EU’s largest gas consumers — Germany and France — have fallen below 50%. Against this background, pipeline deliveries of Russian gas to Europe via TurkStream have increased. Since the start of 2026, supplies in the European direction are up by 10.76% compared to the same period of 2025.

According to data from ENTSOG, physical gas flows through the Strandzha-2 / Malkoclar interconnection point on the Turkey–Bulgaria border reached 53.36 million cubic metres on 11 January 2026, with the preliminary nominated volume for 12 January rising to 54.03 million cubic metres. In total, 17.6 bcm of gas were transported to Europe via TurkStream and its onshore extensions in 2025, an increase of 8.39% year-on-year.

Weather conditions remain severe. Temperatures in Scandinavia (Finland, Sweden, Norway) have dropped to around –30 °C, while Central Europe is experiencing sustained temperatures near –10 °C. Multiple European countries have issued yellow, orange and red weather alerts due to frost and snowfall. Meteorological forecasts suggest a gradual warming only after 15 January.

According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, as of 10 January 2026, European gas storage facilities contained 59.16 bcm of gas, corresponding to a fill level of 54.88%. Daily withdrawals in recent days have reached approximately 330 million cubic metres. In parallel, February gas futures at the TTF hub in the Netherlands were trading at €29.51/MWh on 12 January, about 4% higher than the previous day’s settlement price.

IDR Comment.
The current situation highlights the structural vulnerability of Europe’s gas balance during prolonged cold spells, even under conditions of diversified supply routes. Accelerated storage drawdowns, rising reliance on pipeline imports and increasing price volatility underline the strategic importance of demand-side management, energy efficiency measures and coordinated regional storage policies, particularly for Central and South-Eastern Europe.