Danube Ports Exported 917.7 Thousand Tonnes of Agricultural Products — 22.9% More Than in All of August

From 1 to 24 September, 917.7 thousand tonnes of agricultural products were shipped towards Ukraine’s Danube ports, including Orlivka. This is already 22.9% more than the total volume recorded for the whole of August, according to the weekly review by Spike Brokers.

Over the past seven days alone, another 319.3 thousand tonnes were added to the Danube-bound flow, equivalent to an average of 45.6 thousand tonnes per day.

At the same time, rail deliveries to port destinations declined. During the first 22 days of September, around 155.5 thousand tonnes of grain were transported towards port areas, 29.7% less than a month earlier. Export deliveries to Izmail amounted to 42.6 thousand tonnes, while domestic deliveries reached 55.5 thousand tonnes.

This means that the Danube export corridor is increasing volumes despite weaker rail support.

By contrast, only 25.6 thousand tonnes of grain passed through the port railway stations of Greater Odesa over 22 days of September, 53% less than in August.

The western land border remains under the greatest pressure. Out of 603.5 thousand tonnes of grain exported by rail, 503.4 thousand tonnes, or around 83%, crossed via land border points. The corresponding share reached 92% for vegetable oils and 94% for oilseed meals.

At the same time, signs of congestion are emerging on the western route. Average daily grain transfers through the four main border crossings stood at 256.4 rail wagons during the first 22 days of September. This was 32.9% higher than in August, but already 7.8% lower than in the first half of the month.

The number of wagons accumulated near the western border increased to 13,944, including 3,449 grain wagons. Over one week, the queue grew by 22.3%.

Overall, between 1 and 24 September, Ukraine exported 2.339 million tonnes of agricultural products worth $1.202 billion. Grain exports reached 1.17 million tonnes, while rapeseed shipments totalled 341 thousand tonnes.

Demand for Ukrainian products in Europe is also increasing. COCERAL lowered its forecast for the maize harvest in the EU and the United Kingdom from 52.7 million to 48.6 million tonnes. EU maize imports since the beginning of the season rose by 26.9% to 4.47 million tonnes. Supplies from Ukraine increased to 1.4 million tonnes, bringing Ukraine’s share of EU maize imports to 31.4%.

Comment by the Institute of Danube Research

The Institute of Danube Research notes that September’s dynamics once again confirm the role of the Danube route as one of the most flexible elements of Ukraine’s export logistics.

“What is particularly significant is that the Danube ports are increasing throughput even as rail deliveries decline. This suggests that the system is partially compensating for limitations in one mode of transport through road haulage, domestic logistics, storage reserves and more intensive use of port capacity.

At the same time, the current export structure also reveals the other side of route diversification. The western border is already operating under increased pressure, while the accumulation of almost 14,000 wagons indicates that spare capacity is not unlimited.

For Ukraine, it is essential to avoid a situation in which growing EU demand coincides with infrastructure bottlenecks at the border. Strengthening Danube ports, railway crossings, road corridors and cooperation with Romania and Moldova should therefore be viewed as parts of a single logistics system.

This is particularly relevant against the background of a lower European maize harvest forecast. Ukraine’s growing share in EU imports creates additional export opportunities, but their realisation directly depends on the capacity of transport corridors,” the Institute of Danube Research notes.