Moldova may benefit from Europe’s growing demand for biodiesel

European demand for biodiesel is creating new opportunities for Moldova as a supplier of rapeseed and other oilseeds. This was one of the key conclusions of the 25th International Conference “Fat & Oil Industry 2026 — European Edition”, held on June 18–19 in Varna, Bulgaria.

The forum brought together representatives of Moldova’s agricultural and oilseed processing sectors, including Yuriy Rija, Director of the Agrocereale Grain Exporters Association, representatives of Donau Soja, and managers of oil and fat industry enterprises.

The main conclusion of the discussions was that the logic of the vegetable oils market is changing. While harvest volumes used to be the decisive factor, demand for renewable energy, particularly biodiesel, is now playing an increasingly important role.

For Moldova, this has practical significance. International analysts are increasingly viewing the country as an important supplier of rapeseed to the European market, alongside Ukraine, Canada and Australia. The reason is a structural deficit in the EU: production of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is growing, but it is not keeping pace with demand for biodiesel feedstock.

In the 2026/27 season, rapeseed production in the EU and the United Kingdom is estimated at around 22 million tonnes, while imports may reach 5.9–6.6 million tonnes. The use of rapeseed oil for biodiesel production is expected to exceed 7 million tonnes.

At the same time, growing demand is supporting prices. According to Yuriy Rija, the price of rapeseed oil in Europe has increased by approximately 25% over the past year — from EUR 1,000 to almost EUR 1,300 per tonne. Positive price dynamics are also observed in the sunflower and soybean oil markets.

However, producers are also facing rising costs. Higher natural gas prices affect the cost of nitrogen fertilizers, which is particularly important for rapeseed as a technologically demanding crop. Forecasts suggest that in 2026 the global fertilizer price index may rise by around 31%, while urea prices may increase by almost 60%.

Another important factor for Moldova is active demand from Turkey and the Balkans. Turkey’s processing industry is increasing purchases of oilseed raw materials from Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova and Ukraine. Bulgaria also needs imports, as its processing capacity significantly exceeds domestic raw material production.

Comment by the Institute of Danube Research

The Institute of Danube Research notes that the growing demand for biodiesel opens new opportunities for Moldova, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria, while also increasing requirements for agricultural policy, logistics and processing.

“For the countries of the Danube–Black Sea region, it is important not to limit themselves to the role of raw material suppliers. Much greater added value can be created through processing, storage, port logistics and the integration of the agricultural sector into European bioenergy chains,” the Institute of Danube Research states.

The Institute emphasizes that the Danube can play an important role as a transport corridor for the export of oilseeds and vegetable oils to the EU, Turkey and other markets. This requires predictable tariff policy, efficient transshipment, port infrastructure development and coordination of customs procedures.